Wimbledon: All change at the All England club?

Neither player looked imperious and invincible, as they did when they won the several Championships they have at the All England Club.

Djokovic's serve is definitely vulnerable. Viktor Troicki is a good returner, but his consistency cost him rallies against the world number one. However, he caused Novak enough problems to suggest a more experienced, consistent performer can undo the defending champion.

Roger Federer turned it on in a few games against Xavier Malisse, but was lucky to win the first set, when his trainer break at 6-5 down didn't do Mailisse any favours. Having to sit and wait while Federer's back was massaged gave Malisse too long to think about serving out the set, and also allowed his muscles to cool.

With no warm up when Federer returned, Malisse's serve took a few shots to warm up, and the freer former Champion broke back and won the tie break, before getting more treatment in the rain break which followed.

At 2-1 down and a break up, Malisse also had a good chance to take it to 5 sets, when Federer's back would surely have again become an issue, but alas he missed half a dozen points by literally inches - fractions that a slightly better player on another day will get right and the Swiss master will be staring down the barrel.

As it is Wimbledon, there are millions willing Andy Murray to win the title that has eluded a Brit for so long. But we all know he is vulnerable, especially when going behind.

He is yet to develop the aura Djokovic, Federer and Nadal have which freezes opponents even if they get ahead. His petulance comes through and his opponents sense a chance. He has the skills, as his head-to-head record with all the big three shows. However, filter those stats to only look at Grand Slams, and it tells an all too familiar story. The big three lift their game for the big games. Murray is yet to prove he can.

So who is going to topple the big two?

In a year when the weather has not baked the courts, taking a yard or two off the pace of the big hitters, I can see a returner upsetting the odds. An Agassi-like player. Remember people saying he didn't have the game to win on grass?

Jo-Wilfred Tsonga clearly has a game to win on grass, but he is another who is suffering from back problems, and there are some marathons ahead if you want to lift the trophy, particularly to overcome Djokovic and Federer. While I do believe they won't win it, I do see them contesting the semi-final, and its a tough call to say who will make the final.

The other half of the draw, after Nadal's shock exit is clearly more open, but the finalist, for me, comes from the Murray v David Ferrer quarter-final.

Ferrer, as Murray has already said, is not just a clay court player. He looks like he has a Grand Slam in him, but has, so far, always been outgunned by one of the big three.

He is an outstanding returner, only his lack of firepower on his serve preventing him going all the way. With the grass courts at the All England Club not playing as fast as usual, he will handle Murray's serve, and will at some point get his nose in front - the position Murray doesn't often come back from, and one Ferrer knows how to close out from.

It could go to 5 sets, but I won't be surprised if the Spaniard progresses, and then has an easier ride through the semi-final to Sunday's Centre Court showdown.

Ferrer will probably prefer to face Djokovic, as his serve has more chinks in it than Federer's, but having made it that far, he will believe he can win, whoever his opponent, and justifiably so.

So, be prepared for another Spanish sporting success this summer - but not by the same Spaniard we expected 10 days ago.

image: © rakkhi

Nigel Owen

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Born into a sporting family, with a father who played both local league football and cricket, and a PE teacher and ladies international cricket umpire mother, Nigel Owen soon caught the sporting bug, going to watch his father from an early age. He followed his father's lead, playing local football and cricket, before recently retiring from playing both, but now referees football and helps run Teddington Cricket Club. There are few sports he doesn't enjoy playing and/or watching - golf, snooker, tennis, horse racing, even managing to find the only curling rink in England.

Nigel has spent his whole career in the banking world, and currently works for RBC in London.