But the latest forecast from the E&Y Item Club shows this will not be enough to prevent a 0.2% fall in GDP for 2012 as a whole, nor will it prevent the chancellor, George Osborne, from missing the £95bn deficit target for the year by £8bn.
Disappointing trade figures due to the eurozone crisis and weaker demand in the US, India and China stifled growth in the first half of the year, said Item. But falling inflation and rising employment have resulted in consumer demand bouncing back more strongly than expected, taking up some of the slack. These trends will gather pace next year, helped by a revival in the housing market, with GDP expected to grow 1.2% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014.
But Item Club chief economic adviser Peter Spencer said: "Consumers may be propping up a weak recovery this year but the move towards more balanced growth over the medium term hangs critically upon a recovery in world markets.
"However, even if the US negotiates the impending fiscal cliff [tax rises and spending cuts] and European policymakers actually do what it takes to save the single currency, these markets will still be held back by austerity and retrenchment.
"A lot still hangs in the balance and risk dominates the outlook."
He said public spending figures had been hit by "a pincer movement" of higher spending and lower tax receipts, leading to the country missing the deficit forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Spencer said: "We think this is largely cyclical but the OBR may view this deterioration as structural and suggest that further policy tightening is necessary after the election if the chancellor is to meet his fiscal targets."
Meanwhile, a survey from Lloyds TSB gave a different view of consumer spending, at least for last month. Following a rise in August, spending power fell by 0.9% in September, giving people about £100 less to spend on non-essential items than a year ago.
Lloyds said the volatility "may in part be attributable to the mixed weather conditions and events over the summer months – such as the Queen's diamond jubilee and the London 2012 Olympic Games – influencing consumer behaviour patterns and is reflective of other economic data over this period displaying similar variance."
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